Strategy Markets and Customers

Market sizing from industry data and buyer counts

How much of your market can you win?

Works estimates three figures. The total addressable market (TAM) is how big your market is. The serviceable available market (SAM) is how much of it you can serve. The serviceable obtainable market (SOM) is how much you can win. Each figure lists its sources, its assumptions and a confidence rating. You get a sizing document with a planning recommendation.

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Updated

What you get
Market size · Fenwright Systems
Ready for planning
3 / 3
figures with sources and a confidence rating
8%
gap between the two SAM estimates
TAM · $520 million Medium confidence
SAM from industry data · $410 million High confidence
SAM from buyer counts · $377 million High confidence
SOM, next 12 months · $4,176,000 Medium confidence
Three SOM cases Optimistic, base and conservative
Planning recommendation Written

You use the SOM figure to set reachable growth targets for next year.

See it run

A market size in progress

Market being sized
Mid-size US plants · $58,000 a year per customer
Figures calculated 2 / 3
Run log
  1. You
    “Size the market for maintenance software in mid-size US manufacturing plants.”
    Your instruction
    ✓
  2. You
    Market boundaries set You
    You chose maintenance software for mid-size manufacturing plants. The scope is the US only. Buyers are counted as companies.
    ✓
  3. M
    $410 million SAM from industry data Market Sizing Analyst
    The estimate starts from an industry association figure from 2025: $1.1 billion for US maintenance software. Keeping only mid-size manufacturing plants leaves a TAM of $520 million. Keeping only plants able to buy leaves a SAM of $410 million.
    ✓
  4. M
    $377 million SAM from buyer counts Market Sizing Analyst
    The agent counts 6,500 mid-size manufacturers you can reach on LinkedIn and in directories. 6,500 buyers times $58,000 equals $377 million. The two SAM estimates differ by 8%. Your limit for a recheck is 30%.
    ✓
  5. You
    Your sales capacity needed You
    2 of 3 figures are calculated. Your win rate on qualified deals is 24%. Enter how many new customers your team can take on next year.
  6. S
    Rating each figure for confidence Sizing Documenter
    TAM is rated medium because it comes from one industry source. SAM is rated high because the two estimates agree within 8%.
    •
How it works

Two estimates of your market, compared

The top-down estimate starts from a published industry figure. TAM is the industry figure filtered by geography and segment. SAM is TAM filtered to buyers able to purchase. For the bottom-up estimate, the agent counts the buyers you can reach. The count is multiplied by your average revenue per customer. The two estimates are compared, and any gap is explained. SOM comes from your win rate and the number of new customers your team can take on.

What it needs
The industry or market category of the business
The geographic scope: local, regional, national, or global
Your average revenue per customer
Your current win rate on qualified sales opportunities, if known
What you get

A market sizing document with TAM, SAM, and SOM, their sources and assumptions, the two methods compared, confidence ratings, and a one-paragraph planning recommendation.

Run sequence

Start to finish

The work starts from the problem you are sizing and where you sell. Five stages produce the sizing document.

  1. 1
    Market Boundaries

    Set what your market includes

    You name the problem you are sizing
    You list the customer types inside the market
    You choose the geography and how to count buyers
    You
  2. 2
    Top-Down Estimate

    Estimate the market from industry data

    Published industry sources chosen, each with its publication date
    Industry figure filtered by segment and geography
    TAM and SAM calculated from the filtered figure
    Market Sizing Analyst
  3. 3
    Bottom-Up Estimate

    Estimate the market from buyer counts

    Buyers counted from LinkedIn and directories
    Buyer count multiplied by average revenue per customer
    Gap between the two estimates explained
    Market Sizing Analyst
  4. 4
    Obtainable Market Estimate

    Calculate the share you can win

    You record your win rate
    You enter how many new customers you can add
    You choose a 12-month or 3-year window
    You
  5. 5
    Market Sizing Document

    Put together the sizing document

    Each figure rated high, medium or low for confidence
    Planning recommendation written in plain language
    You review and approve the document
    Sizing Documenter + You
Before it starts

What Works asks you

A few questions in plain words. The answers set up the run for your business.

What problem or product category are you sizing?
YouScheduling software for independent dental practices
Which geographic area can you realistically sell to within your planning period?
YouNational (one country) for the base case
What average revenue per customer a year should the bottom-up estimate use?
YouAbout $6,000 a year per customer on an annual plan
What is your current win rate on qualified deals?
YouAbout 1 in 4 qualified deals (25%)
How many new customers can your current sales and delivery capacity realistically take on next year?
YouAround 40 to 60 new customers with the current team
What time window should SOM cover: the next 12 months or 3 years?
YouThe next 12 months of sales you can realistically win
Who runs it

The agents behind this workflow

The Market Sizing Analyst calculates the two estimates and compares them. The Sizing Documenter rates each figure and puts together the document.

Playbook specialist
M

Market Sizing Analyst

Owns this area

Estimates your total addressable market (TAM), serviceable available market (SAM), and serviceable obtainable market (SOM) from sourced data, and scores segments.

Estimate market size top-down and bottom-up, and reconcile the two estimatesRate each estimate for confidenceWrite down assumptions so that others can check them
On this workflow
M

Market Sizing Analyst

Builds the top-down and bottom-up estimates from published data, compares them, and gives a sourced range.

Pull published industry figures and filter them to the market you serveCount the buyers you can reach from directories and searchCalculate a bottom-up estimate from the buyer count and the average revenue per customerCompare the top-down and bottom-up estimates and explain the gapCite and date every source so each figure can be checked
S

Sizing Documenter

Rates each estimate for confidence and puts together the final sizing document with a planning recommendation.

Rate each estimate by the strength of its sourcesBuild a SOM sensitivity table with three casesCompile the figures and assumptions into one documentWrite a planning recommendation in plain languageFormat the output for an outside reader
Jeanie, your Chief of Staff Works Crew

Jeanie leads a core crew of seven that runs your company day to day. They direct the specialist and workflow agents in each playbook, including the ones on this workflow.

Connections · apps · integrations

Bring what you already run

The apps and accounts this workflow reads from and writes to. Connect them once and Works keeps them in sync.

Google SheetsLinkedIn
  • Google Sheets. The Market Sizing Analyst and the Sizing Documenter use Google Sheets.
  • LinkedIn. The buyers you can reach can be counted on LinkedIn, filtered to your segment and geography.

These are starting points, not a limit. Connect the tools you already use.

Related workflows

13 Strategy workflows use this market size.

This one
Size the Market
Feeds into 13 workflows
Identify and Prioritize Segments
Run a SWOT Analysis
Set Annual Business Goals
Define Business Model
Model Segment Attractiveness
Plan Market Entry
Position the Category
Map the Growth Path
Set Up a Market Intelligence Dashboard
Prioritize Strategic Partnerships
Plan the Platform and Ecosystem
Enter New Markets
Set a 3-Year Direction
Works · AI business OS

One workflow inside your whole business

In Strategy, Size the Market is part of the Markets and Customers work.

Prebuilt playbooks, plus your own
StrategyMarketingSalesCustomer SuccessPartnershipsProducts & ServicesOperationsFinancePeopleLegal & Compliance + Build your own
The Strategy playbook
73
Workflows
19
Specialist agents
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Workflow agents
238
Templates
You're here
Size the Market
One of 73 Strategy workflows · run by 2 workflow agents
Templates

What comes with it

Built for this workflow
XLSX
TAM SAM SOM Sizing Model
Calculates your TAM, SAM and SOM. It opens in Works after you sign up.
XLSX
Market Assumptions Tracker
Lists the assumptions behind each market figure. It opens in Works after you sign up.
XLSX
Top-Down Bottom-Up Reconciliation Model
Compares the top-down and bottom-up estimates. It opens in Works after you sign up.
Also included here
XLSX
Assumption Log and Test Tracker
Records your assumptions and how you test each one. It opens in Works after you sign up.
XLSX
Alternatives and Status-Quo Tracker
Lists the other options your buyers have, including no change. It opens in Works after you sign up.

Each template opens inside Works after you sign up.

Questions

What people ask

What is the difference between TAM, SAM and SOM?

TAM is how big your market is in the geography and segment you chose. SAM is the part of TAM you can serve, limited to buyers able to purchase. SOM is the part you can win. It comes from your win rate and the number of new customers your team can take on.

How are the two estimates compared?

The top-down estimate starts from published industry data. The bottom-up estimate starts from a count of the buyers you can reach. You choose how big a gap makes you stop and recheck, for example about 30%. Any gap that is left is explained in the sizing document.

What do you need before you start?

You need to know the industry or market your business is in. You also need the geographic scope: local, regional, national or global. Have your average revenue per customer ready. Your current win rate on qualified sales opportunities helps too, if you know it.

What do you get at the end?

You get a market sizing document with TAM, SAM and SOM. Each figure lists its sources and its assumptions. The document compares the top-down and bottom-up estimates. Each figure has a confidence rating. The document also has a one-paragraph planning recommendation.

Size your market before you set growth targets

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